Tuesday, April 07, 2020

How will I pay my bodyguards?

(This was drafted a couple of weeks back and then not posted, for some reason. I doubt we are really past this moment, so I think the thought is still relevant)

Someone, I think it was Douglas Hofstadter, wrote an article within the last couple of years which told of how he was paid a big chunk of money to fly to a private island somewhere to have a discussion with some big hedge fund/private equity guys about things. Just a few of them sitting around talking. At some point in time one of them says to Hofstadter: "If things get really bad and money isn't worth anything, how will I assure my bodyguards remain loyal to me?"

In some regards, we're looking at a situation not unlike that these days. As a result of the unprecedented economic shock of the Covid-19 pandemic, the markets have lost value at an historic pace. The underlying fear is that corporations -- even highly rated ones -- won't be able to service their debts or refinance. Everyone is rushing to get cash, the only thing that matters, and the credit markets are buckling.

This at a moment when credit is most necessary. A service-based economy is having many of its essential services shut down, so many people won't be able to pay their bills, their mortgages, etc. But everything must keep running. You can't evict people in this situation, or shut off their utilities.

(Since I wrote this the big stimulus bill has passed, and measures have been passed to keep people in their homes and businesses. We'll see if it's enough. The world continues to change quickly. As of today the markets are acting happyish)

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