Friday, February 26, 2010

A good chart

From Energy Information Administration, a Federal Agency funded by the "discretionary budget" which is being frozen so that politicians won't have to address the hard issues of underfunded entitlements based on longevity assumptions which have long since been rendered obsolete.  This one chart speaks volumes about the politics and reality of energy.

Table R2.  Energy Consumption by Source and Total Consumption per Capita, Ranked by State, 2007 

Rank
Coal Natural Gas a Petroleum b Retail Electricity Sales Total Consumption per Capita
State Trillion Btu State Trillion Btu State Trillion Btu State Trillion Btu State Million Btu
    1
   Texas    1,609.1    Texas    3,641.4    Texas    5,886.9    Texas    1,173.1    Alaska    1,062.3
    2
   Indiana    1,574.5    California    2,440.4    California    3,946.3    California      901.6    Wyoming      948.6
    3
   Pennsylvania    1,490.7    Louisiana    1,423.1    Florida    1,983.5    Florida      788.5    Louisiana      861.2
    4
   Ohio    1,461.7    New York    1,218.9    New York    1,633.4    Ohio      552.0    North Dakota      671.1
    5
   Illinois    1,090.3    Illinois      979.3    Louisiana    1,599.9    Pennsylvania      517.2    Texas      496.3
    6
   Kentucky    1,020.4    Florida      950.3    Pennsylvania    1,455.6    New York      505.6    Montana      483.1
    7
   West Virginia      983.0    Michigan      847.8    Illinois    1,418.1    Illinois      498.3    Kentucky      477.5
    8
   Georgia      934.7    Ohio      836.3    New Jersey    1,373.3    Georgia      469.0    West Virginia      469.9
    9
   Alabama      888.4    Pennsylvania      781.7    Ohio    1,357.0    North Carolina      450.0    Alabama      460.8
   10
   North Carolina      827.8    Oklahoma      690.6    Georgia    1,100.2    Virginia      380.7    Indiana      458.4
   11
   Missouri      802.4    New Jersey      640.7    Virginia    1,016.6    Indiana      373.3    Oklahoma      445.8
   12
   Michigan      799.9    Indiana      548.1    Michigan      987.3    Michigan      372.9    Mississippi      424.3
   13
   Florida      720.8    Colorado      515.9    North Carolina      970.8    Tennessee      364.1    Iowa      414.0
   14
   Tennessee      672.4    Georgia      453.9    Indiana      877.7    Kentucky      315.3    Kansas      409.1
   15
   Wyoming      494.8    Alabama      431.4    Washington      846.8    Alabama      313.3    Arkansas      406.1
   16
   Wisconsin      464.9    Massachusetts      417.3    Tennessee      827.1    Washington      292.6    Nebraska      391.6
   17
   Iowa      464.4    Wisconsin      403.9    Missouri      758.9    Missouri      291.8    South Carolina      384.2
   18
   Virginia      457.9    Arizona      402.1    Kentucky      747.4    South Carolina      279.6    Tennessee      379.0
   19
   South Carolina      444.0    Minnesota      396.5    Minnesota      706.2    New Jersey      279.6    South Dakota      367.2
   20
   Arizona      438.5    Mississippi      374.9    Massachusetts      684.6    Louisiana      271.5    New Mexico      361.8
   21
   North Dakota      420.1    Alaska      371.8    Alabama      626.4    Arizona      263.4    Minnesota      361.7
   22
   Kansas      396.3    Virginia      332.7    Wisconsin      619.5    Wisconsin      243.3    Idaho      354.0
   23
   Utah      391.3    Kansas      291.6    Arizona      595.4    Minnesota      232.8    Ohio      352.8
   24
   Colorado      388.5    Washington      279.7    Oklahoma      578.0    Maryland      223.1    Delaware      350.4
   25
   Oklahoma      373.2    Missouri      277.6    South Carolina      576.5    Massachusetts      195.0    Maine      346.3
   26
   Minnesota      366.0    Nevada      263.6    Maryland      557.3    Oklahoma      188.3    Virginia      339.1
   27
   Maryland      327.8    Iowa      261.9    Colorado      525.4    Colorado      175.0    Missouri      334.1
   28
   New Mexico      296.1    Oregon      258.2    Mississippi      470.9    Oregon      166.3    Wisconsin      329.8
   29
   Arkansas      275.0    North Carolina      245.2    Iowa      441.6    Mississippi      164.3    Georgia      329.0
   30
   New York      257.5    New Mexico      240.3    Kansas      424.5    Arkansas      160.6    Pennsylvania      322.6
   31
   Louisiana      249.8    Kentucky      236.0    Connecticut      396.8    Iowa      154.5    Washington      320.5
   32
   Nebraska      216.8    Utah      232.2    Arkansas      386.9    Kansas      137.0    District of Columbia      318.5
   33
   Montana      202.5    Tennessee      229.7    Oregon      384.7    Nevada      121.6    New Jersey      317.1
   34
   Mississippi      184.9    Arkansas      228.0    Alaska      324.1    West Virginia      116.6    Illinois      315.2
   35
   Massachusetts      120.1    Maryland      208.5    Hawaii      306.3    Connecticut      116.4    Colorado      305.5
   36
   New Jersey      111.8    Connecticut      184.1    Utah      305.6    Nebraska       96.4    Nevada      304.3
   37
   Washington       95.7    South Carolina      180.3    Nevada      292.6    Utah       94.8    Utah      301.8
   38
   Nevada       82.9    Nebraska      146.4    West Virginia      288.7    Idaho       81.1    Michigan      301.2
   39
   California       66.4    West Virginia      122.6    New Mexico      284.8    New Mexico       76.0    North Carolina      298.6
   40
   Delaware       63.8    Wyoming      117.6    Maine      235.6    Wyoming       53.0    Oregon      296.7
   41
   Oregon       45.3    Rhode Island       90.8    Nebraska      235.1    Montana       53.0    Hawaii      269.1
   42
   New Hampshire       44.9    Idaho       83.9    Montana      210.6    District of Columbia       41.3    Maryland      265.0
   43
   Connecticut       39.9    Montana       75.0    Wyoming      176.2    North Dakota       40.6    Vermont      261.2
   44
   South Dakota       33.2    New Hampshire       64.6    New Hampshire      169.6    Delaware       40.5    Florida      252.9
   45
   Hawaii       19.1    North Dakota       63.0    Idaho      165.8    Maine       40.5    Connecticut      249.5
   46
   Alaska       13.0    South Dakota       54.1    North Dakota      142.7    New Hampshire       38.3    Arizona      248.3
   47
   Idaho       10.2    Delaware       49.8    Delaware      135.8    South Dakota       36.2    New Hampshire      239.5
   48
   Maine        6.6    Maine       47.9    South Dakota      121.3    Hawaii       36.1    Massachusetts      234.2
   49
   District of Columbia        0.5    District of Columbia       33.9    Rhode Island       91.5    Rhode Island       27.3    California      233.4
   50
   Rhode Island        (s)    Vermont        8.9    Vermont       87.5    Alaska       21.6    New York      209.2
   51
   Vermont        (s)    Hawaii        3.0    District of Columbia       22.5    Vermont       20.0    Rhode Island      206.6
   United States   22,739.9    United States   23,677.6    United States   40,358.1    United States   12,844.8    United States      336.8
aIncludes supplemental gaseous fuels.
bIncludes fuel ethanol blended into motor gasoline.
(s) = Value less than 0.05 trillion Btu.
Web Page:  All data available at http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/states/_seds.html under “Complete Data Files."
Sources:  Data sources, estimation procedures, and assumptions are described in the Technical Notes.

Conflict of interest

Was contacted late yesterday by a young go-getter reporter from Bloomberg who for some reason has come to believe that I am worth quoting on insurance M&A and other high-end topics, who wondered if I might be willing to comment on the AIG 2009 earning which are being released today.  "Sure," I said.  I actually dreamt that he called me on my cell phone at 5 in the morning and let me in on an earnings video for AIG, wherein executives were cracking a lot of jokes and really trying to make it look like AIG was a great and homey place to work.  At some point in time, the jocular CFO was actually lathering up the disembodied head of some ethereal woman.  I was the only member of the analyst/press corp there, and I thought that odd, and a senior executive guy from another insurer/broker whom I really like was there too, not saying anything, and I wondered why he was there.

In the same dream I went grocery shopping and was able to score a sample piece of stuffed spinach pizza, but somehow I ended up at checkout with nothing but meat, cheese, and bread and wondered if I would be chided for returning home from the store with zero fruits or vegetables.

On the drive to work today I found the best of the three CDs from the Magnetic Fields' epic 69 Love Songs, which is Merge Records' great and lasting contribution to world culture. Though I was somewhat rushing to get in to work to bone up on the AIG sitch, I sat and listened to a song or two once I got to work, bedazzled as I always am by the shimmering brilliance of the lyrics. This song reminds me very much of the early 90s as I lived them.

Wednesday, February 24, 2010

A couple of thoughts

  • The Journal today reports that the town of San Mateo, CA, lost $155 million on Lehman securities and now are annoyed that they couldn't get any bailout money from the government. Oracle is headquartered there.  I would suggest that the town should ask Larry Ellison to bail them out instead.  And instead of running off chasing the America's Cup. Oracle should be impacted by this more than anyone else.  And the town should think again before wagering 6% of its assets on one companies debt.
  • Apparently GM is shuttering Hummer now that its planned sale to a Chinese concern has fallen through.  May the big ugly gas-guzzling thing burn in hell where it belongs.

Monday, February 22, 2010

Social Graphing of Board Appointments

The Economist ran a story a few weeks back citing a study that said that corporate boards where there were social ties between the CEO and board members (roughly 45% I think) resulted in share price underperformance. Serving on multiple boards together also doesn't look like it enhances performance (insert your penis enlargement joke here). I find it hard to believe that none of the big vendors tracking corporate actions (dividends, stock splits, mergers, etc.) doesn't / couldn't easily track board appointments.  From there it would be trivial to overlay some sort of social graphing thingamabob to show who's on what board with whom.

You could also add some kind of manual wiki thingie which would let people observe social ties via sightings in Vanity Fair and other society rags and plug them into the graph.  It would be very interesting.

Thursday, February 18, 2010

Tea immersion

I have recently been reading and nosing around the internet more to learn about the whole Tea Party thing. Much as we would like to dismiss it, there are a lot of angry people out there.  Looking at pictures of movement members, one thing that springs to mind, aside from the general whiteness of most of them, is that they look like people who have typically not had intellectually engaging professions, though I'm sure there are lots of white collar movement members.  But, to the extent that the movement is engaging working class people, reading the Constitution and playing an active role in political discourse, it's not all bad.

Nor is it entirely delusional. Lots of people are mad about bailouts, deficits, banks, etc. Arianna Huffington's "Move Your Money" campaign has similar drivers, to the extent that it seeks to deny the big banks of their power base.  Matt Taibbi's whole "blood-sucking squid" discourse around Goldman Sachs grows from similar conspiracy theory soil.

However, to the extent that these people are polishing their guns as they plan for armed insurrection, it's all bad.  Some members advocate sherriffs and other law enforcers should only support laws that are constitutional.  They should therefore be determining constitutionality on their feet, from behind the wheel of their cruisers.  Hmmm.  I thought that's what the Supreme Court was for.  Much as I disagree with Samuel Alito and Clarence Thomas on a variety of issues, they are doing their jobs as the Constitution defines them.

Right now I'm listening to the Runaway Slave show of CL Bryant, a black msn.  They are railing against Michele Obama's program to control obesity, defending individuals' god-given rights to be fat or skinny.  Everything is the fault of the government.

Anyway, the main problem is the guns and the fact that they are fomenting armed rebellion. If they dominate mid-term elections, it is the Democrats fault for not figuring out good counter-messaging.

postscript:  I was so caught up in work that I failed to notice that a loonie tax "patriot" had torched his house and slammed his plane into an IRS building.  It is encouraging at least that a Republican congressman has been willing to stand up to the tea party pressures and call it an act of terrorism even before law enforcement does the same.

Tuesday, February 16, 2010

Uniforms

At lunch today I happened to catch a few minutes of a men's curling match between the US and Germany. I must say I was pleased to be able to figure out which country they represented by looking at their outfits.  Frankly I find the fact that Olympic teams are sporting more corporate logos than flags a little confusing and, frankly, a little boring. I'm not Joe Patriot or anything, but when you're watching sports events you know absolutely nothing about, it's helpful for starters to know who your supposed to be cheering for.  From there you can decide if you actually want to pull for them.

Monday, February 15, 2010

Kabluey

While this was a somewhat disappointing performance from the normally fabulous Lisa Kudrow, the actual lead actor was awesome in this movie.  Worth renting.  A number of good laughs.

Friday, February 12, 2010

How-to and Reality TV for the downturn

The viewpoint that companies need to create jobs these days is, on the one hand, based in the hard, cold reality of nasty times and tight-fisted banks, but it is equally underscored by a cynical belief that people don't know how to create value bottom up.  That a substantial portion of the population is so deracinated, disempowered and undereducated that all they can do is get and learn jobs of limited complexity. I, for one, am not so down on the capacity of working folk as to think they can't learn how to grow into new roles and responsibilities.  Just think how creative otherwise unexceptional people can get with narcotics production and distribution.

How is it, then, that these same people who were so educable in the ways of complex consumption in the preceding decades cannot be shown how to start and run businesses.  Which is to say that, for every "This Old House," "Punk My Ride," "Queer Eye for the Straight Guy", "Home Makeover", cooking and endless flavors of shows that tought us how to consume things in a complicated way, that equally compelling TV couldn't be created around producing value.  Imagine Click and Clack doing "Start-up Talk," Bob Vila doing "This New Start-Up," a reality show which brought us the trials and tribulations of a Quiznos.  It wouldn't necessarily be great, but so much TV isn't.  If you get charismatic people in front of the camera, and, for the lower grade ones, good-looking people in their 20s with strategic piercings and enhanced physiologies, there could be a lot of passable and cheap to produce TV.

Thursday, February 11, 2010

Cash Hoarding and Activism 2.0

There's a lot of talk of sloshing these and hoarding these days. Bloomberg today ran a story entitled "Jobless Suffer with Corporate Cash Climbing to $1.19 billion". Other recent reports in the Wall Street Journal have called attention to a trillion bucks gathering dust on bank balance sheets. I'm sure there's some double counting in there that I don't have time to sort out, but even in 2010 a trillion dollars or two is non-trivial money.

Here's what I can't figure out:  where are all the activist investors, the Bill Ackmans and Carl Icahns of the world who should be muscling onto the boards of all these cash-hoarders to demand that something be done with the cash:  M&A, capex/expansion, buybacks, dividends, etc.  Is it that we believe that the cash is doing the best job it can just sitting there on corporate balance sheets?

I think the answer is that activist investing -- for all the swashbuckling that the name implies -- is generally a pretty slowmoving train.  You've got to build up a position in a company and push your way onto the board to be heard.  It takes time and effort, and with all the returns that could be had just by buying and holding since last March.  Plus Ackman's still smarting from the underdiversication in a portfolio consisting of nothing but Target stock (whoops!).

But why can't the tactics of activist investing -- assembling voting blocks to pressure boards and senior management to put cash to work or sell off units or whatever -- be adopted to the 2.0 world?  What about organized campaigns?  I know I know, it would be hard as hell to do.  But who thought you could elect a President that way until 2008?  Why can't grass roots techniques be adapted to the corporate arena?  CERES mounts similar campaigns to organize environmentally-minded institutional investors to pressure boards to improve governance around sustainability issues.

Could someone actually make money on it?  Are there regulatory reasons an institutional or discount broker couldn't raise awareness and motivate voting blocks of clients?

A target should be selected for a proof of concept, and once the methodology is in place, it could be rolled out and replicated selectively.

Wednesday, February 10, 2010

Great moments in filmed Rock n Roll

Tuesday, February 09, 2010

Tapped out

Am trying to make a foray into respectable, semi-pro, adult blogging (no not in that sense).  Visit my non-alter ego here to see my attempts at coherent commentary on my newfound professional domain.

Otherwise, no thoughts this evening.

Monday, February 08, 2010

Countdown to South Africa

On Fox Soccer tonight, a spotlight on Paraguay on "The Contenders."  Amazing that TV can be this good, and that, as Friedman would have it, the world is as flat as the futbol pitch.  Frankly, no matter what Roubini and Marc Faber and all the doom and gloomers say, if I can see a focus on a resurgent Paraguay team and see enthusiasm there, I feel good about about the world economy over time.

Henry Paulson on his Prius

Stephen Wozniak of Apple days of yore was cited today on Huffpost and Bloomberg, concerning "scary" issues concerning cruise control and acceleration in his Prius.  This caused the Grouse to wonder about how other famous Prius drivers are doing in their little love boxes, specifically Henry Paulson, so beloved for his roles at Goldman Sachs and the Treasury.  So the Grouse picked up the phone and gave Hank a call.  Here are a few of his comments:  "If anything, I'm concerned that the Prius is a little underpowered at present.  Does the gasoline engine have enough power to keep the electric one fully charged?  Stepping on the brakes is the last thing we need to do right now.  In conditions as icy as these, one shouldn't be tapping on the breaks at all. If the vehicle is beginning to slip, I see my job as steering it in the direction of the spin to stop it from having a hard landing. And as for Wozniak's problems with his cruise control, well, we're anything but ready for cruise control right now.  I sent Kashkari out tooling around in mine to come up with some emergency plans for the Prius's navigation in a holistic sense, and he and his task force came up with a proposal that we've shared with Chairman Bernanke and noone else, but I'm prepared to take to Congress if it becomes necessary... the absolute worst is when birds fly into it, but they don't break the glass... I always insist that Corzine wear his seat belt.."

At this point in time the former Secretary began to ramble a little bit, not unlike grandpa Simpson, so I quietly excused myself and returned to my task.

Sunday, February 07, 2010

Classic footage from Letterman's daytime show

Wednesday, February 03, 2010

Toyota as resilient enterprise?

Watching Toyota fall all over itself in its attempt to react to its recent crisis brought to mind Yosi Sheffi's seminal book The Resilient Enterprise, in which Toyota plays a starring role.  In 1997, there was a fire at a key supplier in the supply chain for Toyota's brakes, just as there was a crunch on to get cars out the door because some incentive was coming to an end.  Toyota's supplier reacted immediately and informed Toyota, which in turn marshalled its keiretsu into a war room, shipping out technical specs to other suppliers and getting production back up to speed with minimal disruption to production.  Much rejoicing ensued.

Somehow this sense of urgency has not been maintained in the current environment.  One suspects it has to do with the presumed impact of the 1997 and 2009-2010 incidents on the corporate top and bottom lines.

On another note entirely, I have to say that it strikes me as mildly improper that
the US Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood has sprung into action today by telling Toyota drivers to stay out of their cars until they're fixed.  However rational that may be, the fact that the US Treasury has a controlling interest in GM and Chrysler makes LaHood a not disinterested party.  Yet another of the lamentable unintended consequences of the government's extraordinary actions during the crisis.  We may hope that this conflict of interest will be removed in an orderly fashion over the next few years.

Tuesday, February 02, 2010

Naked without my laptop

I had a dream last night that was a variant on the old "naked in public" dream, except it was more pathetic even.  I was headed to work, on a plane, and I needed to give a presentation that evening for the "graduating class" of my consulting firm.  Except, when I lifted my bag, I discovered that I had ("gasp!") forgotten my laptop.  I was dreadfully embarassed, as all my colleagues were gathered around me in their cubicles, grinding away, and I tried to figure out how to extricate myself from this without being discovered.

And then, thankfully, I woke up, though initially into that half-sleep where you don't yet entirely realize that you're awake and therefore in the clear.

Monday, February 01, 2010

Lost in the Trees

Saw these guys on student TV the other night.  Am not 100% sure I'm down with the band, but this is a great song.

Friday, January 29, 2010

Grahamisms du jour

  • As we were stacking our half cord of wood, Graham says to Mary:  "This is just like in the olden times, when everyone would gather whale blubber"
  • After collecting some kindling, Graham referred to it as "kindlington"
  • In discussion with Natalie, Graham declared that it was the Marx brothers who were the first to fly a plane
You really can't make this stuff up

On Greece

For those of you who are monitoring the debt crisis in Greece, let me direct you to the posts from my trip to Greece in the September '08 (yes, that month).  It was mildly portentious.

Greek television
Checking out of hotel
Lodgings
Day 1

See also this, written as if in another century.

GSE regulators

Thursday, January 28, 2010

Dealing with the press

In my new capacity of industry analyst, I have occasion to talk to the press not infrequently.  It has been an illuminating experience.  Years ago, I was working on a project for a major newspaper publisher where my firm was writing software for placing ads in the paper, and I was writing a small program (my one and only attempt at being a programmer) to test the bigger application.  In so doing I learned that the newspaper ad salespeople referred to the content of the paper as the "news hole," and that newspapers are all about selling ads.

Now that I am in the position of providing journallists with content, I see that the hole metaphor is entirely apt.  Journalists will call you up looking for answer X.  "Do you think X is true?"  And you say "Oh yes, X is very true."  And then your name appears in the press, as if by magic.

Sometimes I will take some time to think about X and consider why X might be true, what might be some of its preconditions, or what we may from X's awesome trueness.  I may share these musings with the journalist, who will run off and print that I said the X was very true indeed.

If you write a press release, the press may read it and restate this or that ever so slightly, and print it.  Or they may just print it.  I guess that's why they call it a release.  If you put numbers in a report, they will definitely print those, often without even reading the caveats.

Wednesday, January 27, 2010

Big day

Rarely are days as packed with potentially market-moving news as this one:

  • Geithner goes before the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee to talk about AIG.  Personally, I'm sick of the whole thing.  Congress likes to hover over AIG and Goldman because it stirs up populist sentiment which makes them feel important.  Rarely in human history have people worked under as much pressure as the Treasury, Fed, New York Fed, and others did in the fall of 2008.  Did they fuck up some?  Sure they did.  We got through it.

    I'm beginning to think Goldman is like Iraq after 9/11.  Definitely some shady shit went down there.  But is Goldman the primary cause?  No.  Just like after 9/11, we had to hit back somewhere.  Nonetheless, the optimal resolution is for GS and Blankfein to offer a haircut to the government now:  give back $1-1.5 bln to Treasury in recognition of the extraordinary circumstances of last fall.  Show leadership.

  • Bernanke cloture vote.  Is that even happening today?  It was supposed to but has dropped off the radar;
  • Federal Open Markets Committee.  What will they say about QE and rates?
  • State of the Union Address.  Can Obama build momentum and trust again?  (I hope so).  I will watch, despite good Premier League action on FSC.
  • Continued expansion of Toyota recall:  clearly good news for Ford, Honda, Hyundai.  Can GM also capitalize?
  • If the markets can stay stable and the markets close within .5% of where they start, that's good.  There's a risk the dow goes below 10,000 today, which is actually fine from and end of month 401k contribution perspective.

  • In a positive indicator, Carolina beat State on the road last night.  Glad to see it. 

Monday, January 25, 2010

Too big to fail?

Andrew Ross Sorkin's book Too Big to Fail has been praised pretty much by everyone as the definitive book on the credit crisis. All I can say is that, if this is the case, I'm glad I haven't wasted my time on any of the other ones. Because for the first 100-odd pages I haven't really learned much that I hadn't read elsewhere except that Dick Fuld was really loyal and that his good buddy Joe Gregory probably wasn't cut out to be #2 at a big investment bank and that Erin Callan also wasn't the best choice for CFO. But I don't really care about that.

I already knew Stan O'Neal had a great rags to riches story and was an asshole and I knew that Henry Paulson was an environmentalist. OK, I didn't know he drove a Prius, but I don't really care about that either.

So I'm taking time off for Eric Ambler's A Coffin for Dimitrios.

Sunday, January 24, 2010

Mild day

Graham and I went looking for deer prints down by the creek and found no fewer than eight of them. Later, after tetherball with Natalie, I returned to a project begun for Leslie's wedding reception in 1990 and since delayed a little: building a rock wall along the edge of the property in a shameless pseudo-Connecticut affectation. Carrying those dogies up the hill is no joke. This will continue to be a slow burn project, but it will move forward nonetheless.

Was trying to think of something to write but then noticed that Tottenham Hotspurs are taking on Leeds on the Fox Soccer Channel, Murdoch's great contribution to American culture. More later.

Thursday, January 21, 2010

Speedy Gonzales

It is astonishing that Obama should move so quickly and so transparently in response to the election of Scott Brown in Massachusetts to attack investment banks cum bank/holding companies for blending proprietary trading and more traditional banking functions. Everybody predicted that he would have to kowtow to populists and make this move if the senate supermajority was lost.

The fact is, working through these contradictions in the banking system should have been the focus of his first year in office. It shouldn't have needed to be a knee-jerk reaction to apparent failure on another front. Rahm Emanuel's cynical evocation of Milton Friedman and Naomi Klein's shock doctrine ("never waste a good crisis") took the Democrats off course from where they needed to be.

A careful and considered reevaluation of financial regulation could have been more easily followed with a measured advancement of health care reform, conceivably with less injury to the Democratic agenda as a whole. We may hope that Obama will battle back to fulfill his promise of being a truly awesome and excellent president. Dropping a surprise bomb on Wall St, even if it contains the right explosives, is a little risky.

More of cousin

This picture should give you a good idea of what Natalie thinks of her cousin Caroline.

Wednesday, January 20, 2010

Tiny little Nightingale

In keeping with our recent theme of women singing on stage, here's Natalie (and Margaret) in last summer's production of The Nightingale.

Friday, January 15, 2010

Singing her heart out

This came off well on the big screen, still a pretty intense tune.

Thursday, January 14, 2010

A chip

I will confess to paternal pride when told of how Graham is viewed as a general authority on a wide range of questions in his kindergarden class. He's been out sick for much of the last week with something (bronchitis?). Apparently, the teacher was asking the kids why you could see your breath when it was cold outside and nobody had the answer. Then someone said "I wish Graham was here, he would know."

Aid to Haiti

Everyone is coming out of the woodwork urging relief for Haiti. I gave some today too. Here's how I did it.

First, I went to GiveWell, a new service which does due diligence on and rates charities in terms of their efficacy in getting money to their stated causes, their transparency, and other metrics. There I found a charity called Partners in Health that is on its rather short list of top-rated charities.

Then I went to Network For Good, a website that lets you aggregate the recordkeeping of your charitable giving for tax time, and generally serves as a conduit for giving. On their front page I saw that Partners in Health was listed as a popular organization providing direct relief to Haiti. I donated money to them over NFG's platform, and tacked on a surcharge for NFG to keep them going.

I'm not certain that GiveWell's ratings are perfect, but they seem pretty dedicated to their mission. Network For Good I like, though clearly their servers are having some difficulty handling high volume days like today.

Wednesday, January 13, 2010

I think I'm in love

What more is there to say.

Tuesday, January 12, 2010

Stuyvesant / Peter Cooper two-step

Is it just me, or did BlackRock and Tishman/Speyer's decision to default on debt payments coming due over the real estate deal of the century in the East Village smell funny. Coming on the heels of Ecuador's decision to thumb its nose at its creditors in December of 2008, the Federal government's decision to interject the UAW in front of more senior creditors in the GM bankrupcy negotiations, and the new fad for walking away from underwater mortgages, there's a whole new culture of debt repudiation coming round.

BlackRock and Tishman Speyer couldn't come up with the dough? I don't know about T S, but BlackRock? What, are they strung out from the Barclay's Global Advisors acquisition? Come on, Black Rock sitteth at the right hand of the Fedder in every matter these days. They just decided it didn't suit them to own up to this clusterfuck of a deal. A whimper rather than a bang.

Monday, January 11, 2010

The Hazard of Love

Incredible stuff. Be sure to listen to the end if the harpichord stuff doesn't float your boat.


Newsflash: A little digging shows that the star of this song, Shara Worden, isn't even a member of the band. She's a guest. Whoops! Never want to have a guest blow the hosts right out of the water. Still, the band has merits.