Hospitality shift

An article in the Journal this morning described how there has been a measurable shift in the workforce away from hospitality jobs towards logistics but also real estate, insurance, etc. One of the drivers is that people who've been working long stressful days into the night for varying pay are appreciating more stable and diurnal schedules. We all see it in restaurants these days as things take a little longer, so we just need to adjust our expectations.

There are a bunch of knock on effects that are already being realized and can be expected:

• Hospitality providers are increasing benefits and pay for workers. In the short term it could drive inflation. In the long term it could even out as turnover decreases and more stable career paths emerge.
• At the low end, more processes will be automated (restaurant ordering automation could become more ubiquitous at the low end and more prevalent at mid-tier establishments, hotel reservations and check out [mostly already there], etc.
• More food service will move towards quasi-catering to accommodate lower foot traffic in stores
• Ultimately, retail-facing real estate could continue to transition to logistics, call centers, and other non point-of-sale uses as demand settles

If demand for sit down food service falters because of waves of opening/closing as the pandemic drags on and the workforce transitions away, it could have the baneful effect of taking away the customer service jobs that help lower and younger people get the confidence and social skills that can help them advance their careers. That would be a shame. It would be much better if we could accept growing pains and celebrate new entrants to the workforce. 

The absolute best thing would be if we could open up our borders a little and let more people onto paths towards naturalization to fill the gaps. Ultimately, that's what we need: more people. The US fertility rate is at its lowest rate ever (1.64 vs. a replacement rate of 2.1) in 2020. So we need more immigrants, or we are just going to have to accept fewer services. More importantly, we just won't be America, where we should be embracing and empowering immigrants.

But I digress.