The End of the World

Beth was talking to someone from Bear Stearns who was prognosticating about the end of the world. "A market event, or the real deal?" I asked.

Indeed, recently I have heard serious people actually say things like that for the first time, they can envisage the end of the world. Climate change and its implications for intensely populated areas. Resource contention driven by the rise of consumer expectations in emerging markets. With terrorism as a wildcard. Think about the risks associated with an America in economic freefall as markets and the dollar continue to degenerate. We still have the world's most powerfall military, even if it's in a quagmire. People are proud of it, and may seek to use it to prop up our sense of self. In some sense, Iraq is already that. What if America becomes the wounded dog that bites? What if Iraq becomes for us what Afghanistan was for Russia, the straw that brakes the camel's back?

But, then again, millenialism and eschatology have historically been cyclical phenomena. Malthus comes in and out of style, as the Economist reminds us from time to time. Why, as early as 1988 I initiated a "Millenialism Watch" as part of the countdown to 2000, and found no end of fodder.

A real risk point, sadly, is the Obama assasination meme. Lets say he does get elected. A bunch of crackers are going to be not real happy. What then?