Obama's Katrina?

A lot of people are asking whether the Gulf crisis is Obama's Katrina?  There are a lot of heady themes wrapped up in this simple question, and I think it's best to address them head on.

• Was Katrina Bush's Katrina?  The idea is that the moral emptiness of Bush's regime was laid bare by the images of the forgotten underclass languishing at the Superdome and Bush and Chertoff's failure to respond. In fact, we were all complicit in the first bit, and Bush's failure to respond probably didn't cost him many votes in 2008.  It may have galvanized Democratic voter registration drives, though.
  
• If Obama fucks up, is the Democratic Party fucked forever?  Of course not. A lot of people were panicky around Scott Brown, the Tea Party, and now BP.  The fact is that, as Obama has noted, the regulatory apparatus and culture around oil drilling, suburbia, and energy consumption have been bipartisan and cultural for many decades.  That said, three decades of Republican domination and wild west mentality have played a big role.  It is shameful that auto sales in recent months have been driven by SUV and truck sales (though lots of these have been fleet purchases for contractors).  People have short memories.
  
  To come back to my point, lets assume the Republicans regain seats in the mid-terms and Obama loses in 2008.  That does not mean we'll never have another black president or another progressive one.  In my view, the senate supermajority has caused the Democrats to be suboptimal listeners and reactive opportunists, and this is coming back to bite us.
  
  Deepwater Horizon is not Obama's fault, and he can't fix it, any more than he can fix unemployment.  Things take time. People are freaked out about hyperinflation when deflation is the bigger threat, but Fox News and the Tea Party have gotten the upper hand in terms of defining the debate.  I think Obama should bring Volcker to the podium to talk about more than just proprietary trading. People respect him and will listen to him.  There may be a fear that he will overshadow Bernanke.

Anyhow, my gut is that however bad Obama fucks up, he will eventually be viewed as a positive figure, because he has a good heart and his vision of America is one that is credible and in line with what most people, if not white people petrified by change. And because he's young and has a great career ahead of him.

OK, this is rambling, but hell, it's a blog.