Friday, June 26, 2020

Epicureanism and inflation expectations

While thinking about food today, something I often do, especially during lockdown times when feedings loom large as events go, it occurred to me that my inverse epicureanism shared much with inflation expectations, as conceived by economists. To wit, I have tried very hard to not acquire expensive taste, first and foremost in sushi and automobiles, but really in anything. So I can be satisfied easily, and so that a future reduction in the quality of what I consume won't be perceived as a decline. I hurt myself falling from a low perch.

Inflation expectations are important considerations in interest rate setting decisions by central banks, which target specific inflation levels across an economy, Goldilocks like, not too high, not too low. In recent years the American Fed has targeted 2% inflation, but has had a hard time getting there.

The expectations part works like this: if people expect inflation to be low or for there to be deflation, they will slow down purchases, in the hopes that prices will be lower in the future, creating a deflationary spiral which is disastrous for people trying to service debt, esp. mortgages and revolving consumer debt. If people expect high inflation, there is incentive to spend money in the present while they are cheap, more or less. Which can drive inflation higher.

Honestly, when I started thinking about this analogy in the morning it made a lot of sense and I was even fairly excited about it. But the day has worn on and now it is time to go home and I kind of don't care anymore, I can't quite pull it back together in my mind. I remember not long ago I was reading about John McPhee and his writing habits and he spoke of practically tying himself to his chair to force himself to write in a disciplined fashion. I can never quite carve out that time between taking care of all the shit which gets foisted upon me, which dooms me to just blogging, continually, bumping along the bottom of the discursive sea while pumping out my statutory four paragraphs thrice weekly for you, my beloved reader.

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