Wednesday, June 04, 2025

The centrifugal force of the New World Order

As the US and to a lesser extent the world veers ever more in the direction of multipolarity via one-off tariffs instead of global and regional trade and other agreements, certain calculi are shifting. Trade and international affairs are going to become ever more complex, necessitating a better educated diplomatic corps not just for governments but for smaller entities (states, municipalities, countries). Although AI's ability to do simultaneous translation will get better and better when dealing face to face with one another people will always prefer someone who has made the effort to learn their language.

Moreover, product development and targeting should get more complex. This will favor those who have made the effort to get to know languages and cultures. Somehow I doubt AI is going to take this over. Maybe it's the romantic in me, me pulling for John Henry vs the steam drill.

Until the US gets its shit straight this will end up favoring non-US companies, the Unilevers of the world, who take the time to get to know their markets. Admittedly platforms are eating up product-makers for the most part, but a new world order may end up favoring a new type of platform also. We've seen huge platforms grow abroad: Alibaba, Tencent, Didi, Mercadolibre, NuBank. So long as they don't get stepped on by their sovereigns, as Xi did to Alibaba and Didi, they should flourish. 

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